- Daily Energy Market Update
- Posts
- Daily Energy Market Update May 30,2025
In partnership with
WTI is down 78 cents July RB is down 2.06 cents July ULSD is down 2.36 cents
Overview
Energies are down as President Trump has tweeted this morning that China has violated its agreement with the U.S. that was made 2 weeks ago. Crude oil has dropped over $1 on the President's tweet after attempting to rally overnight. Uncertainty for financial markets remains due to rulings seen the past 2 days in the U.S. courts regarding the tariffs President Trump is looking to impose. Additionally the energy markets are awaiting the outcome of this weekend's OPEC+ meeting to see what plans the group may have beyond any increase that they may agree to for July deliveries.
The U.S. Treasury Secretary told Fox News on Thursday that trade talks between the US and China are "a bit stalled," saying a call between President Trump and China's Xi Jinping may be needed to reach a deal. (Bloomberg)
In the U.S., Trump’s tariffs were to remain in effect after a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated them on Thursday, reversing a trade court’s decision on Wednesday to put an immediate block on the most sweeping of the duties. (Reuters)
The DOE statistics were moderately bullish with crude oil drawing more than forecast and product demand rising strongly on the week. Crude supplies fell by 2.795 MMBBL, beating the best forecast for a draw of 0.6 MMBBL. The crude draw seems mostly due to increased crude oil exports of 794 MBPD on the week, thus leading to a decrease in net crude imports of 532 MBPD. This offset the drop in crude inputs to refineries of 162 MBPD. Gasoline demand rose on the week by 808 MBPD to a healthy total of 9.452 MMBPD. This beat the prior 2 years demand of 9.148 and 9.098 MMBPD. Distillate demand rose by 481 MBPD on the week to 3.893 MMBPD, thus besting the prior 2 years figures of 3.795 and 3.646 MMBPD.
A Reuters poll of 40 economists and analysts saw them lower their price forecasts for Brent and WTI for 2025. Brent is seen averaging $66.98 in 2025. This forecast is down $2.00 from April's forecast. WTI is seen averaging $63.35 in 2025. This forecast is down $1.73 from last month's. The forecasts were revised down for the 3rd month in a row. The prospect of increased OPEC+ supply and lingering uncertainty around the impact of trade disputes on fuel demand were the catalysts for the downward revision.
There were several trades seen on the CME in crude oil options that were done in volume. The Brent August call options traded with the $65 call being bought versus selling of 1.5 times as many $70 calls for a cost of 95 cents with delta futures sales at $63.60. In the WTI Calendar spread options, the January, February and March one month puts traded. In each of the 3 months, the minus 25 cent put was bought versus selling of 1.5 times as many of the minus 75 cent puts for a cost of 8 cents. The August $65 calls in WTI/LO saw open interest increase by 6,521 contracts. Many of the August $65 calls traded as a part of a butterfly across months. The July $65 and October $65 calls were bought against twice as many August $65 calls being sold for a total cost of 2 cents.
Today is the last trading day for the June RB & June ULSD, as well as the July Brent futures.
Technicals
Momentum is negative for the energies.
WTI support at 60.02-60.12 is being tested as prices have fallen as low as 59.98 at this writing. Below this we see support at 58.95. Resistance comes in at 62.06-62.14.
RB for July sees support at 1.9908-1.9926. Resistance is seen at 2.0531-2.0541.
July ULSD sees support at 2.000 and then at 1.9802-1.9814. Resistance comes in at the overnight high at 2.0502-2.0515
Natural Gas - NG is down 4.2 cents
NG futures are lower now after rallying overnight with the prospect remaining of "cooldown" in Texas and the South. The prospect of further 100 BCF injections in the coming weeks after the prior 5 weeks of triple digit injections is also seen weighing on prices.
NatGasWeather.com says in a note: "There were no major changes in the overall weather picture for the coming week, with a cooldown in Texas and the South and strong demand in California and the Southwest. But, NatGas adds : "Further out, the expectation is heat impresses for much of the 2nd half of June for strong national demand." (WSJ) The Commodity Weather Group added to the lower weather demand saying Thursday that forecasts have turned cooler for the central U.S. for June 3-7.
The EIA statistics disappointed again Thursday with a larger than expected build. Storage rose by 101 BCF, exceeding news wire survey forecasts by 2 to 8 BCF. Total storage rose to 2.476 TCF. This is +93 BCF/ +3.90% versus the 5 year average and -316 BCF/-11.32% versus last year. The 101 BCF injection made it the 5th straight week of a triple digit build. Celsius Energy says that the record for 100+ injections in a row is 7 weeks back in May-June 2014. The estimates we have seen of +106/+109 BCF for next week's data point to a 6th week of over 100 BCF being added to storage. In next week's data, last year's build was 94 BCF and the 5 year average build for next week is 98 BCF.
In the NG market on Thursday, we saw several large trades. In the LN/NG options, the $3.75/$6.50 call spread in October was bought at a cost of 33.5 cents with delta futures sold at $3.63 in the trade. The October 2025 futures settled Thursday at $3.676. Also the April 2026 / October 2026 futures spread traded on separate legs. 2,000 contracts of the April 2026 futures were bought at $3.80 against simultaneously selling of 2,000 of the October 2026 futures at $4.173, thus at a spread differential of 37.3 cents. The April October 2026 spread settled Thursday at 37.2 cents. In the April October 2026 6 month calendar spread put options, the minus 75 cent put was purchased versus selling of the minus $1 put for a cost of 2.3 cents. Additionally in the April October 2026 6 month calendar spread put options, the minus 40 cent put was actively purchased for a cost of 12.3 cents. The September $5.00 call open interest rose by 4,801 contracts. The September $5 call was sold versus the September $3.50 straddle (put and call) being bought for a total cost of 72.6 cents. The October $3.75/$6.50 call spread traded in a 1 for 2 ratio at a cost of 33.5 cents with delta October futures sold at $3.63.
Technically, the spot futures again went up to test the 50 day moving average on the DC chart. The 50 day moving average lies today at 3.528. DC chart based support is seen at 3.423-3.427 and then at 3.335-3.340. Resistance comes in at yesterday's high at 3.576. Momentum basis the DC chart is positive.
Enjoyed this article?
Subscribe to never miss an issue. Daily updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.
Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:
What Top Execs Read Before the Market Opens
The Daily Upside was founded by investment professionals to arm decision-makers with market intelligence that goes deeper than headlines. No filler. Just concise, trusted insights on business trends, deal flow, and economic shifts—read by leaders at top firms across finance, tech, and beyond.
Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
Reply